Status of Cyclone Workshop 19 September 2003
12th Cyclone Workshop
21-26 September 2003 Scientific Agenda
(current as of 18 September 2003)
Far Hills Inn and Conference Center
Val Morin, Quebec, Canada
Sunday, 21 September 2003
Workshop begins with dinner
Monday, 22 September 2003
Session I: Cyclone/anticyclone life cycles and theoretical issues,
Chair: Lance F. Bosart
1. A new look at anticyclogenesis. Stephen J. Colucci, (Cornell
2. Hodograph variability within analytically modeled
synoptic-scale baroclinic systems. Peter C. Banacos
and Howard B. Bluestein, (University of Oklahoma).
3. West-Pacific wave cyclone induced by wave packets propagating
across the subtropical jet over
Southern Asia. Edmund K. M. Chang, (ITPA/MSRC, Stony Brook
4. Dynamical sensitivity to downstream development in an eastern
North Pacific cyclone. Richard
Danielson, (McGill University), David Straub, and John Gyakum.
5. Mesoscale fine structure of extratropical cyclones. Andreas
D=F6rnbrack (DLR Oberpfaffenhofen),
Andreas Fix, Gorazd Poberaj, Gerhard Ehret, and Melvyn A. Shapiro.
Session I continued, Chair: John W. Nielsen-Gammon
6. Carl Kreitzberg: Scientist, mentor, colleague and charter
member of the Cyclone Workshop. Robert A.
Cohen (East Stroudsburg University) and David M. Schultz.
7. Idealized three-dimensional simulations of baroclinic waves
interacting with U. S. west coast
topography. Joseph B. Olsen (SUNY/Stony Brook) and Brian A. Colle.
8. The role of the large-scale deformation field on the
evolution of extratropical cyclones during the
FASTEX period. Gwendal Rivi=E8re (CNRM, METEO-France), A.
Joly, L. Hua, and P. Klein.
9. Baroclinic Zone Potpourri. David M. Schultz (CIMMS/NSSL) and
Session I continued, Chair: Isidoro Orlanski
10. Error-growth dynamics of moist baroclinic waves. Chris
Snyder (NCAR), Fuqing Zhang, Richard
Rotunno, and Zhe-Min Tan.
11. Perturbation growth in baroclinic waves. Martha R. Stevens
(U. of Washington) and Gregory J. Hakim.
12. Extracting envelopes of Rossby wave packets. Istvan Szunyogh
(U. of Maryland), A. Zimin, D. J. Patil,
B. Hunt, and E. Ott.
Session II. Tropical cyclones and extratropical transition, Chair:
13. An evaluation of the precipitation distribution in
landfalling tropical cyclones. Eyad H. Atallah
(SUNY/Albany) and Lance F. Bosart.
Chair: Huw C. Davies
14. Theory and observations of tropopause vortex asymmetries.
Gregory J. Hakim (U. of Washington) and
Amelia K. Canavan.
15. Bifurcation in eddy life-cycles: Implications for storm
track variability. Isidoro Orlanski (GFDL,
Tuesday, 23 September 2003
Session II. Tropical cyclones and extratropical transition (Continued)
Chair: John R. Gyakum
16. Numerical simulations of the extratropical transition of
=46loyd (1999) along the U. S. east coast. Brian A.
Colle (SUNY/Stony Brook).
17. Tropical cyclones of non-tropical origin. Christopher A.
Davis (NCAR) and Lance F. Bosart.
18. The extratropical transitions of eastern Pacific Hurricane
Lester (1992) and Atlantic Hurricane Andrew
(1992): A comparison. Michael J. Dickinson (SUNY/Albany),
Lance Bosart, Kristen Corbosiero,
Susanna Hopsch, Kelly Lombardo, Matt Novak, Brandon Smith,
and Alicia Wasula.
19. The influence of the downstream state on extratropical
transition: Hurricane Earl (1998) case study.
Ron McTaggart-Cowan (McGill U.), John R. Gyakum, and Peter Yau.
Session II continued, Chair: Robert E. Hart
20. Synoptic composites of the extratropical transition lifecycle
of North Atlantic tropical cyclones as
defined by the cyclone phase space. Robert E. Hart (Penn
State) and Jenni L. Evans.
21. Upper-level dynamical effects of a hurricane upon the
extratropical downstream evolution. Olivia
Martius (ETH) and Cornelia Schwierz.
22. Research aircraft observations in ex-Hurricane Isabel (2003).
Jim Abraham (Research Directorate of the
Meteorological Service of Canada).
Session III: Diabatic heating and precipitation
Chair: Christopher A. Davis
23. Climatology of precipitation associated with 500 hPa closed
lows in the Northeast United States.
Anantha Aiyyer, (SUNY/Albany), Eyad Atallah and Lance Bosart.
24. A diagnostic study of the GEM operational forecast of the
European windstorm 'LOTHAR'.
Jean-Francois Caron (UQAM).
Session III continued, Chair: Christopher A. Davis
25. The importance of upper-tropospheric mobile trough structure
in severe weather outbreaks. David A.
Gold (Texas A & M U.) and John W. Nielsen-Gammon.
26. Impacts of the Atlantic and the Mediterranean on a heavy
precipitation episode on the Alpine southside.
Patrick Koch (ETH) and H. C. Davies.
27. Diagnosis of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Northwest
Africa. Jonathan E. Martin (U. of
Chair: Paul A. Roebber
28. On the midwinter suppression of baroclinic activity over the
North Pacific storm track. Boksoon
Myoung (Texas A & M U.) and John W. Nielsen-Gammon.
29. Diabatic Rossby waves. Heini Wernli (ETH).
Wednesday, 24 September 2003
Session III: Diabatic heating and precipitation (Continued)
Chair: Gregory J. Hakim
30. The importance of short-scale, diabatic modes in a moist
baroclinic atmosphere. Richard W. Moore
(Colorado State U.) and Michael T. Montgomery.
31. On the role of the precipitation mass sink as a vorticity
source in heavily precipitating cyclonic systems.
Gary M. Lackmann (North Carolina State U.).
32. The impact of diabatic heating structures and scales, and
model resolution on balanced-state adjustments
and numerical model spin-up in an idealized numerical
simulation. Annie Duhamel, Christian Pag=E9
(UQAM), and Peter Zwack.
33. Influence of diabatic heating and orography on North Atlantic
blocking. Cornelia Schwierz (ETH), Heini
Wernli, and Huw C. Davies.
Session III continued, Chair: Howard B. Bluestein
34. Mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) during BAMEX. Stan
Trier (NCAR) and Christopher A. Davis.
35. Mesoscale processes leading to the rapid intensification of a
cool season tornadic squall line within a
larger scale cyclonic environment. Alicia C. Wasula
(SUNY/Albany), Lance F. Bosart, Russell Schneider,
Steven J. Weiss, and Robert H. Johns.
Session IV: Mesoscale precipitation structures
Chair: Daniel Keyser
36. The role of antecedent precipitation in the development of
the 24-25 January 2000 cyclone. Michael J.
Brennan (North Carolina State U.) and Gary M. Lackmann.
37. An observational study of cold season banded precipitation in
northeast United States cyclones. David
Novak (NWS eastern Region), Jeff Waldstreicher, Lance F.
Bosart, and Daniel Keyser
38. Orographic influences on the mesoscale structure of the 1998
Ice Storm. Paul J. Roebber (U. of
Wisconsin-Milwaukee) and John R. Gyakum.
39. Synoptic control of mesoscale precipitating systems in the
Pacific Northwest. Kyle Swanson (U. of
Wisconsin-Milwaukee) and Paul J. Roebber.
Session V: Fronts, cyclones and topography
Chair: Frederick Sanders
40. A comparison between eastern North American and western
European fronts. Olivier Fortin (UQAM)
and Peter Zwack.
41. The June 5th 1995 Great Basin wind and snowstorm. Mark
Jackson (NWS/Salt Lake City), Larry
Dunn, and W. James Steenburgh.
42. Numerical simulations of cyclone interaction with the
topography of Greenland. Rebekah Martin (U. of
Toronto) and G. W. K. Moore.
Chair: Heini Wernli
43. Characteristics of European windstorms. Tim Hewson (Met. Office, UK).
44. A societal/economic impact perspective of Rossby wave-train
propagation for the extreme
northern-hemispheric weather events of November 2002. Melvyn
A. Shapiro (NCAR).
Thursday, 25 September 2003
Session V: Fronts, cyclones and topography (Continued)
Chair: David M. Schultz
45. Real front or baroclinic trough. Frederick Sanders (MIT, Marblehead).
46. An example of a major midlatitude cyclogenesis event over the
intermountain region of the western
United States. Jason C. Shafer (U. of Utah).
47. Intermountain cyclogenesis and frontal evolution: What we
know and what we don't. W. James
Steenburgh (U. of Utah).
48. Lower-tropospheric fronts with the leading edge of cold
advection aloft. Mark T. Stoelinga (U. of
Washington), John D. Locatelli, and Peter V. Hobbs.
Session V continued, Chair: Jonathan E. Martin
49. The composite structure and evolution of Alberta Clippers.
Blaine C. Thomas (U. of
Wisconsin-Madison) and Jonathan E. Martin.
50. Generation of mesoscale gravity waves in upper-tropospheric
jet-front systems. Fuqing Zhang (Texas
A & M U.).
Session VI: Large-Scale Issues
Chair: Gary M. Lackmann
51. Planetary and synoptic scale interactions in southeast
Pacific blocking using potential vorticity
diagnostics. Anthony R. Lupo (U. of Missouri), John P.
Burkhardt, and Erin K. Gilliland.
52. A comparison of vertical motions obtained from different
forms of the omega equation. Christopher
Melick (Purdue U.) and Phillip J. Smith.
54. Large-scale modulation of subtropical cyclone frequency in
the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Jason
A. Otkin (U. of Wisconsin-Madison) and Jonathan E. Martin.
Session VII: Forecasting/Applications
Chair: Tim Hewson
55. From mm to cm...Study of snow/liquid ratios over Quebec.
Ivan Dub=E9 (MSC/Quebec Region).
56. Adjoint sensitivity analysis - a practical diagnostic in a
synoptician's tool chest. Daryl T. Kleist (U. of
Wisconsin - Madison) and Michael C. Morgan.
57. An overview of forecasting extratropical cyclones at the NCEP
Ocean Prediction Center. Joseph M.
Sienkiewicz (NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center).
Evening Session: Wild card discussion
Chair: Melvyn A. Shapiro
=46riday, 26 September 2003
Session VII: Forecasting/Applications (Continued), Chair: W. James Steenbur=
58. Using the National Weather Service Weather Event Simulator to
train operational forecasters in
cold-season cyclone prediction. Paul A. Sisson
(NWS/Burlington, VT) and John R. Gyakum.
59. DIONYSOS: A fully balanced diagnostic system for studying
weather systems. Jean-Francois Caron,
Peter Zwack (UQAM), and C. Pag=E9.
Session VIII: Ensembles, Initialization and data assimilation,
=46orecast errors, Chair: Peter Zwack
60. Major numerical forecast failures of west coast storms. Lynn
McMurdie (U. of Washington) and Cliff
Session VIII continued, Chair: Paul A. Sisson
61. The role of initial condition error in the February 7, 2002
Oregon cyclone forecast bust. Brian Ancell (U.
62. The evaluation of NCEP short-range ensemble forecasts for
winter storms. Briana J. Gordon (Cornell
U.) and Stephen J. Colucci.
63. 4DVAR Data Assimilation of satellite-derived winds in
simulations of poorly-forecast cyclones during
PACJET. Katherine M. La Casse (U. of Wisconsin-Madison) and
Michael C. Morgan.
Wrap-up discussion and closing ceremony
12:00 Lunch and Farewell