The Gnome in My Office - The Summer Theory

Robert A. Cohen

East Stroudsburg University

March 2008

I have a little gnome in my office. During those rare occasions when I am bored and alone, I talk to him. I had such a conversation the other day.

It was an unseasonably warm day in February. I commented to him that it was evidence that the days were getting progressively warmer as we move toward summer.

"I don't care what you call it," he responded. "I don't believe it will happen."

I must admit that this response surprised me. "How can you not believe it?" I asked.

"Didn't you say the same thing a couple of weeks ago?" he responded. "I almost got rid of my coat in anticipation. Good thing I didn't. It got real cold over the weekend and, as you know, they turn off the heat during the weekend to save energy. Why should I believe you this time?"

"It isn't just me," I said. "There are a lot of scientists who say it will get warmer."

"Well, scientists have been wrong before, you know," he countered.

"But if you just keep track of the sun," I replied, "you'll see that it is getting higher in the sky each day. More hours of daylight means that the temperature will get warmer. How can you argue with that?"

"Easy," he retorted. He then went on to list the various problems with my argument. I must admit, they sounded pretty convincing.

"First of all," he started, "you've oversimplified the problem. Air temperature is a consequence of many factors and it is not easy to untangle the complicated interactions between the various factors. Anyone who makes it seem simple just doesn't understand the real problem."

"Second," he continued, "if you carefully examine the sun, you'll find that it is getting smaller each day. This is because the Earth is moving away from it. As it moves farther away, it should be getting colder, not warmer."

"Third, there will always be days when it will be warmer and other days when it will be colder. Today just happens to be part of a natural cycle of warming and cooling. It is not part of any general trend."

"Finally," he concluded, "the sun has been getting higher in the sky every day since December. If it is responsible for warming, we should have seen significant warming by now and we haven't."

I admitted that these arguments sounded logical but I questioned how he could doubt the predictions of so many scientists.

"Not all scientists say it will get warmer," he answered. "Dr. John Johnson, a physician on staff at the East Town Hospital wrote a paper in the East Town Hospital Newsletter, for example, that makes it clear that it will not get warmer."

I pointed out that the East Town Hospital Newsletter didn't seem to be a reliable source of information regarding a matter of atmospheric science. "Why wasn't the information published in a reputable journal, like the Journal of Atmospheric Science?"

"Mainstream journals like that are biased because so much of their research is supported by groups that favor the summer theory. Papers that argue against it aren't even considered," he asserted.

"But what about all of the papers that argue in favor of the summer theory?" I asked.

"There is nothing published that proves that the sun rising in the sky necessarily produces warming. There are lots of papers published that assume it is true, but none actually prove it."

"Okay," I admitted, "maybe it will happen and maybe it won't, but what do we lose by preparing for it, just in case it does happen?"

"Think about the economic impact," he answered. "There are a lot of businesses that depend upon the cold weather. Coat companies, for example. If you go around telling everyone it will get warmer, they won't buy any coats. Think of what that will do to the coat companies. Are you willing to risk the economic fallout of so many coat companies failing? I don't think so."

I hadn't realized that it was such a complicated issue.

Maybe summer won't come after all. I started thinking about how I had been brainwashed all along, blindly following the recommendations of groups like the National Academy of Science, never realizing that an organization like that, whose purpose was to provide guidance to the nation on scientific issues, was really an organization of biased individuals who blindly follow the status quo.

I began to feel sad for all the people who are completely unaware of the problems surrounding the summer theory, naïvely believing, like I did, what they were told in their science classes.

He read my mind.

"The problem is really in the science classes," he said. "They present the summer theory as fact. They should show both sides of the issue and let the students decide for themselves." He yawned. "Alas, how the schools teach science will have to be an issue for another day, as I believe it is time for my nap."

And with that, he disappeared back into the clutter that makes up my office. I barely had time to thank him for the conversation.

In the silence that followed, I thought to myself how lucky I was to have a gnome in my office to set me straight on these issues. At the same time, I felt sad that so many people did not have the benefit of his insight. Wouldn't the world be a better place if gnomes were in charge of things? I'm assuming, of course, that they aren't already in charge.

Are they?